The next American war will likely be with Iran. Most future American wars could be considered oil wars, although they may be called " terror wars." American conflicts will not end with Iraq and Afghanistan, and the involvement of the US in struggles for the security of oil supplies is just a matter of time.
The delay of Peak Oil arrival has reduced somewhat the likelihood of the next American war breaking out in the immediate future. A possible war with Iran is the exception and some sort of clash between the US and Iran could occur.
Four likely American war possibilities - with Venezuela, with Syria, with Iran, and with North Korea - will be examined. Some time will also be spent on a potential American conflict with the combined forces of Iran and Syria.
Although the Afghanistan War is not exactly over, an alert citizen senses that the next conflict involving the United States, or our close US ally, Israel, could begin some time in the near future.
Possibilities for a war involving the US or Israel include a a missile or air force attack on the nuclear facilities of Iran. A quick-hitting, land-based, commando attack, using ranger-type troops, on Iranian nuclear facilities is not out of the question, although this is a less likely scenario since Iran, vis-a-vis - Hezbollah - has shown it can fight and that it has good weapons to fight with .
Iran would defend itself against localized attacks but is unlikely to attempt massive counterattacks over such limited forays. A full-scale war that might bring other combatants into the clash would thus be prevented. I also project, at this time, that all military actions will be performed by the US US action would be more acceptable to the world community in general and Israeli involvement might bring other Muslim countries into the fray. Also, since the Hezbollah-Israel War in Lebanon which has shown that they are no longer invincible, Israel needs to be selective who they tangle with.
A possible full-scale war directly involving the US could occur with Venezuela or Iran. However, Iran is big and tough as the Hezbollah - Israel war showed, and, Venezuela, while a military soft touch has greatly increased its international clout, in particular its Latin American clout, over the past few years. An attack on Venezuela would be very unpopular both here and abroad and, particularly, in Latin America. Additionally, the election of Obama as president almost certainly rules out the possibility of a US attack on Venezuela. Obama is just not that kind of president to attack a Latin American nation without severe provocation.
America is less likely to get involved in a future Syrian war with the business in Afghanistan far from finished although Syria would also be a soft touch, militarily. Additionally, serious public protests (Arab spring) are breaking out in Syria and the political system there may soon drastically change.
Venezuela has lots and lots of oil. Even if you discount Venezuela's difficult-to-recover tar sand deposits, there is lots of oil in that country. And the gargantuan tar sand deposits themselves may some day be a tempting target to a nation like the US which is running out of conventional crude oil and which should be able to develop the technological know-how to handle the tar sands, particularly with all the research and development work underway on the somewhat similar oil sand deposits in Canada.
In addition to oil, Venezuela also has a leftist president - Hugo Chavez. Chavez has a big mouth. He has constantly smart-mouthed the US over the past few years.
In his audacious speech to the U.N. in September of 2006, Chavez called Bush the "devil" (El Diablo) and said he could still smell the "sulfur stench" of Bush who had spoken to the U.N. the previous day. How anti-Bush can you get?
Chavez often appears to be attempting to put together a large coalition of undeveloped nations against the US
Venezuela has a small (125,000 to 150,000 men) but well trained military and could more than hold its own in a future war against their chief rival in the area, Columbia, but could offer little resistance to a competent invading army like that of the US Fortunately for Venezuela, the US is totally occupied in Iraq and Afghanistan at this time.
The US, namely the CIA, has apparently already made several attempts to overthrow Chavez but the attempts failed. It is possible that the next US war will feature some sort of invasion of Venezuela by Columbia, the US ally in the region. Columbia, alone, could not handle Venezuela, but such an incident could provoke US intervention. (Note: while Venezuela has no chance against the US in a direct confrontation, Venezuela has Vietnam-type jungle terrain, perfect for a guerrilla war. Just what the US needs, a continuing struggle in Afghanistan and a guerrilla jungle war in Venezuela at the same time).
Things did not go well for the Bush Administration in Latin America. Although democracy has spread and free-market economies are now the rule, the democratic governments the people of various countries have elected are not what the Bush people wanted. Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Ecuador have all freely elected left-leaning or left of center governments. A slap in the face to President Bush and his right-wing concept of democratization which involved new democracies becoming US allies!
All of these countries have weak militaries which would be easy meat for the US
Other than Venezuela (discussed above), the Latin American countries are not in any immediate danger of attack from the US Public opinion in this country would be too much against it. And President Obama is not the type president who starts wars.
There are reports that Cuba has found a huge offshore oil deposit (5 billion barrels or more of valuable light oil). I can just see the eyes of the American oil men glisten at the very thought of getting their hands on that size of light oil deposit close to the US There are reports that China might help Cuba develop the deposit. If the tale of the oil deposit is true, it should be interesting to watch the US, Cuba, and China maneuver around each other.
Syria has a weak military (about 200,000 poorly trained men) and could offer little resistance in either a war with the US or Israel. But, more important, Syria does not have excess oil unlike their brothers in Iraq and Iran. So, why should they be in any danger?
However, Syria has apparently talked to Iran about a mutual defense pact. This could,conceivably, draw Syria into an unplanned war if Israel and/or the US decide to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
Syria is certain to have closely observed how effective the unconventional Hezbollah fighters were in the Lebanese war with Israel. Syria needs to forget about a large conventional military and organize Hezbollah-style. But smaller dictator-controlled countries like Syria, for political reasons, love to have a conventional military of large size to impress their neighbors and it is unlikely they will drop their conventional military for a smaller, more flexible, force similar to that of Hezbollah. Syria's conventional forces will likely be quickly slaughtered in any showdown with Israel or the US
Most important, very serious public protests (revolution?) have broken out in Syria and a change of government. Syria will not be looking to go to war with anyone.
The U.S. immediate concern with Iran is over the nuclear enrichment program that Iran is restarting. The fear is that Iran might use the enriched uranium to develop nuclear weapons. They would still be no threat to the US with its 10 to 20 thousand nuclear weapons or Israel with its hundreds of nuclear weapons, but, the expressed concern is that Iran might turn a bomb over to terrorists.
If war breaks out, Iran won't be an easy US target though!
When Iran fought Iraq back in the eighties, the Iranian military was not in good shape. The Ayatollah Khomeini had taken over Iran and purged the military, slaughtering anyone he thought might be a threat to his regime. Practically the entire officer corps was wiped out. This included the Iran's well-trained air force pilots. (Iran's air force was one of the best in the world and had been trained and equipped by the US) So the air force practically ceased to exist.
Against Iraq, the Iranians resorted to letting religious leaders lead the military. The results were crude human wave attacks wherein tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of Iranian youths were slaughtered. Still, even with all their problems, the Iranians held their own against an Iraqi military that was large but also incompetent. The US and many oil-rich Arab countries poured billions of dollars and aid into Iraq to bolster them.
Iran is unlikely to fight so stupidly again.
Iran's conventional forces are no match for the US in a war, and, possibly, not Israel, but they are improving their conventional forces as time goes by. They have a significant rocket and missile force that they are enlarging and this would pose a threat to Israel in the highly unlikely event that Israel would attack Iran. The rocket and missile force could also pose a threat to US naval ships in the essentially land-locked Persian Gulf, and, more seriously, in the event of a future war, could enable the Iranians to shut down oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. This could create a Persian Gulf oil disaster. The resulting world oil shortage would put a tremendous amount of pressure on the US
The relatively large Iranian economy (heavily based on oil exports) is also a problem for either the US or Israel. Iran has ample funds to continue improving their military and, several years from now, an attack on them will be even more dangerous than at present. The Iranians have not rushed pell-mell into buying foreign weapons although they have purchased a substantial amount. Instead, they have been more intent on building up a strong weapons production industry within Iran. This defense industry infrastructure was not present during their war with Iraq and they suffered because of that lack and they are trying to remedy that situation.
Geography is less favorable for an American invasion of Iran than it was for the Iraq invasion. The capital city, Tehran, is located far inland. Unlike the Iraqi campaign where Baghdad lay fairly close to the border, a US invasion force would not be in Tehran in two weeks and probably not for two or three months. Such a long campaign would entail many more casualties than the US suffered in the Iraqi campaign.
It should also be noted that Iran has closely watched the next-door war in Iraq and has, no doubt, planned accordingly for if their turn comes. They will not go down easily in a future war with the US
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Of course, the elected president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has not helped matters with the US and Israel by publicly stating that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth. He also repeatedly insults the US Is he asking for war or what?
Ahmadinejad is an educated leader (civil engineer) and, with Iran's massive natural resources and relatively large population, could easily lead Iran into the upper ranks of the developed nations of the earth. But he can't do that by adopting the concepts of the extreme Islamic movements. Hopefully, he is just placating these extremist groups while he gets the country up and running. And then again, maybe I am just giving him the benefit of the doubt which he may not deserve.
If Israel were also involved in a two front war involving Israel, the US, Syria, and Iran, Syria would not be much of a factor since Israel would likely quickly knock them out of the war. However, Israel would probably be asked by the US to stay out of such a war to avoid drawing in other Muslim nations.
Syria's cooperation with Iran in a future war against the US would not be a major factor because of Syria's weak military (and Syria is not going to get much stronger - they don't have the economy for it.) The same basic strategy as discussed above regarding a US struggle with Iran would still apply.
A US-North Korea war is always possible, but because of North Korea's large conventional army and nuclear capability, the US is acting with great restraint with North Korea. If war does break out, the North Korean army would probably occupy South Korea quickly, forcing the small "trip-wire" force of Americans there to withdraw. A long campaign with huge American casualties, would be necessary to reoccupy South Korea. No wonder the US moves delicately with North Korea.
A US war with North Korea would not be an oil war as defined earlier.
It should be noted that relations between the US and North Korea have improved recently.
An American - China conflict over Taiwan is possible but very unlikely. China is very possessive about Taiwan but doesn't want a confrontation with the US and the US certainly does not want a war with China, a strong nuclear power. If China does decide to occupy Taiwan, it will probably be with the US's reluctant OK, US tough-talk to the contrary.
Taiwan, you are probably on your own! At some point, you may want to make a deal with China for a peaceful merger.
Fortunately, relations between mainland China and Taiwan appear to have improved recently so there appears little chance that a conflict between the two countries will occur anytime soon.
An American - Soviet war is equally unlikely because the two countries are not competing as much as they formerly did. In fact, in many ways, they are slowly becoming allies although Putin is making some noise as if he wants to restore the old Russian empire. However, accidents can happen between two countries and the tens of thousands of nuclear weapons possessed by the two countries scares hell out of me. I'm not ready to move to Mars yet.
No other major US conflict are foreseen at this time. But when Peak Oil hits in a few years, look out! This country may flail out in all directions to obtain fuel to keep the SUVs and giant pickups rolling. And China and other oil-deficient countries are not going to sit still, either.
1. Iraq War Compared to World War 2. George Bush made the same mistakes that Hitler made! After conquering Iraq with brilliant Blitzkrieg tactics, we starting messing around with the conquered population. Hitler did the same thing with France and Russia and it didn't work. Will we ever learn from history?
2. Post-World War II. After World War 2 came the Cold War and now the War on Terror. Will these wars ever stop?
A future American War could be against Iran and could be considered an oil war because of the developing energy crisis. Other possible US wars could be against North Korea or, much less likely, against China or Russia. The U.S. appears likely to be periodically engaged in some sort of war for the foreseeable future.
Last Updated: 12/30/11